Ladies and gentleman...we are less than one month away from Boise State officially starting a new era in Statesboro, Georgia.
New head coach.
New step-siblings (waves at Wazzu and Oregon State).
New quarterback.
New college football playoff.
All of this, but familiar faces remain.
Ashton Jeanty, a national star who stiff-armed offseason suitors.
Dirk Koetter, the knight in shining armor that will steady the ship.
Jonah Dalmas, once a local soccer player now in line to rewrite the NCAA record books.
And yes, Jeramiah Dickey, despite concerns about a certain Houston vacancy, still remains in the Treasure Valley.
Just like the rest of college football, “the times they are a changin’ “.
With 24 days until kickoff, let’s take a deep dive into this year’s Boise State Broncos.
Offense
Reasons for optimism: The Broncos bring back a generational running back in Ashton Jeanty for one more year despite some tempting NIL deals this offseason. With him back in the fold, the floor for this team can only be so low. Behind Jeanty, Jambres “Breezy” Dubar and freshman Sire Gaines complete the stable. The latter has raised eyebrows since he arrived on campus and may have a bigger impact than originally thought.
That trio will be tremendous, but they need the offensive line to do the dirty work in the trenches. Fortunately, the Broncos return a majority of their starters. Left tackle Kage Casey had a fantastic 2023 season as a redshirt freshman, being named to the freshman All-American team and not giving up a single sack. Ben Dooley will don the blue and orange for one final season at left guard while Mason Randolph finds his way to center once again. Redshirt sophom*ore Hall Schmidt appears likely to slot in at right tackle and while the right guard position doesn’t have a starter in place, Roger Carreon will have to solidify his spot with Jake Steele and Daylon Metoyer in the wings. Going back in the Twitter files, I would put money on Carreon to win the guard spot. Spencer Danielson has bestowed high praise towards Carreon this offseason after being called upon during last year’s tumultuous campaign.
At wide receiver, this may be one of the most physically-gifted receiving corps that the Broncos have had in years. Sophom*ore Prince Strachan will be a huge threat in one-on-one battles after showing out at the end of last season. After missing all of 2023, slot receiver Latrell Caples is back and 100%. Fans may need to reminded that as a redshirt sophom*ore, Caples led the team in receptions and receiving yards in 2022. He is a dependable short to medium yardage target that can move the chains and keep drives alive. Rangy target Austin Bolt exploded at the end of 2023 and is poised to be a big-time playmaker down the field. You can teach route running, mechanics, etc., but you can’t teach pure speed.
The two new guys on the block at receiver are Chris Marshall and Cam Camper. The former is a previous five-star recruit that spent time at Ole Miss and Texas A&M before off-the-field issues led him to the JuCo ranks. Marshall is no doubt a bonafide physical specimen that looks the part of a receiver that could play on Sundays. If everything beyond the gridiron is taken care of, then Marshall could take this offense to new heights. In addition to Marshall, Cam Camper arrives by way of Indiana after suffering an ACL injury a year ago. He is limited as fall camp starts, but should be ramping up as the end of August nears.
If the talent at running back and receiver don’t have you excited, then let me interest you in the tight ends that Boise State possesses. From blocking to downfield receiving, Matt Lauter did everything and then some last year. Behind him, Austin Terry and Cayden Dawson will be able to act as serviceable backups. The only season-ending injury reported thus far is TE Kaden Anderson, and that was due to a preexisting condition.
Reasons for concern: Perhaps concern isn’t the right label for the quarterback situation in Boise, but anytime you don’t have a concrete QB1 heading into fall camp, there should be some caution applied. I am sure that between Malachi Nelson and Maddux Madsen, the Broncos will be in good hands come the opener against Georgia Southern. However, the longer these two share reps with the ones, the less opportunities the eventual starter will have to mesh and become an offensive leader before the biggest test of the season in Eugene, Oregon.
The only true uncertainty on offense is who will win the starting right guard spot and quarterback position. In all honesty, with offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter at the helm, I haven’t had more confidence in an offense being a well-oiled machine since the Brett Rypien days.
Key Stat: 1. That is the amount of starts at the collegiate level shared between Maddux Madsen and Malachi Nelson. It should be noted that Madsen appeared in nine games last season and threw for over 1,100 yards. However, neither one of these guys have played a game from start to finish as QB1.
Wildcard: Malachi Nelson. Despite the urge to pick an under-the-radar guy, Nelson is the unknown commodity that could elevate this offense to another level. He could also be a fresh face in a new system that needs time to become what many of us think he could be in the future. If he is tabbed as the starter prior to week one, that will speak volumes about his progression since he arrived in Boise this winter.
Defense
Reasons for optimism: The bookends on the defensive line should be very stout this year with captain Ahmed Hassanein at defensive end and Jayden Virgin-Morgan at EDGE. Danielson has raved about Virgin-Morgan’s progress in 2024 and how he is one of the most explosive guys on the Broncos’ front. Between those two, Herbert Gums and Braxton Fely will fill the holes at nose tackle and defensive tackle.
At the second level, the linebackers look primed to have a great season. Andrew Simpson has evolved into a dynamic playmaker when defending both the pass and the run. This ability to make game-altering plays was exemplified with an interception via a wrapped hand in the MWC title game against UNLV. Like other Broncos in the past, Marco Notarainni bided his time as an underclassmen and blossomed last year when given the chance. Unfortunately, injuries cut his season short and forced him to be sidelined for all of November. Gabe Hunter, Jake Ripp, and Chase Martin will round out the rotation and create a deep and talented group.
Reasons for concern: The elephant in the room on the defensive side of the ball in 2023 was Boise State’s lackluster pass defense. We thought that Washington’s aerial onslaught was an outlier, but it became quite clear that the secondary was a glaring weakness, even in conference play. Danielson knew better than anyone what was preventing this defense from getting burned over the top time and time again...personnel. That doesn’t mean the guys in-house can’t improve and see the field, but with the transfer portal, there is no reason to sit on your hands and rely solely on development. Just like with any smoothie, you need a proper blend of ingredients to reach its savory potential. That is why Danielson brought in Cal transfer Jeremiah Earby and Washington transfer Davon Banks. High-level talent can push the likes of A’Marion McCoy and Rodney Robinson to exceed expectations.
And I don’t want to ignore that Boise State still has two athletes that keep getting better as they age in Seyi Oladipo and Ty Benefield. Both should see the field at the same time, allowing Robinson and Alexander Teubner to do what they do best when favorable situations arise.
Key Stat: 107. That is where the Broncos ranked in passing yards allowed per game in 2023. Only two Mountain West teams ranked lower...UNLV (111th) and Nevada (112th). To achieve the dreams of a MWC title and potential CFP berth, I believe Boise State needs to finish inside the top 70 by season’s end.
Wildcard: Davon Banks. A late portal add in May, Banks had his redshirt sophom*ore season abbreviated due to injury. However, if he stayed at Washington, there was an expectation that he would be in line to compete for a starting cornerback spot. With Earby essentially locking up a spot alongside McCoy, Banks could be a tremendous third option. If nothing else, he has shown an ability to talk the talk. Reports from the early days of fall camp detail Banks jawing with Prince Strachan from time to time. Friendly banter I’m sure, but it never hurts to have a master linguist on your side.
Special Teams
Reasons for optimism: Jonah Dalmas and James Ferguson-Reynolds. Those are two pretty good reasons for optimism. Dalmas has not only broken school and conference kicking records, but he has the chance to be a part of college football’s continuously-growing novel by breaking the all-time record for field goals made in a career. The crazy part is that this isn’t a one-man show as Aussie punter “JFR” has created almost a cult-like following on X, formerly known as Twitter. From photoshopped goats with a flaming JFR leg in a Bronco uniform to replica mullets, Ferguson-Reynolds has become a fan favorite and is cementing himself as one of the best “Punnas” to walk The Blue.
Reasons for concern: Ever since the days of Avery Williams, the Broncos have struggled to find a home run kick/punt returner. The previous regime had George Holani take punts, but there wasn’t much of a legit threat that came with that. On kickoffs, it was rare if Boise State ever took one out for an actual return. With the reunion of special teams coordinator Stacey Collins from Penn State, expect the Broncos to be much more aggressive in all phases on special teams. There has been video circulating of Ashton Jeanty drilling punt returns and while it sounds like a neat idea, I have to think that they can find someone else to take on those responsibilities. Utah State transfer Cooper Jones is listed as a wide receiver, but he will compete for return opportunities.
Key Stat: 18. That is how many field goals Jonah Dalmas (80 FGM) needs to break the all-time NCAA record for field goals in a career, currently held by Christopher Dunn of NC State (97 FGM).
Wildcard: Sire Gaines. I have a promising feeling that Gaines is going to carve out a role for himself in 2024 despite his youth. From interviews to his work ethic, you can just tell that he is of a different mold. Danielson has said it before, but you want your best players on the field. There is no reason for Gaines to keep the bench warm if he can provide a substantial impact on special teams.
2024 Boise State Schedule
Bold = Home Game, Italics = Conference Game
* All Mountain Time Listings
8/31: @ Georgia Southern (Statesboro, GA - 2 p.m. on ESPNU)
9/7: @ Oregon (Eugene, OR - 8 p.m. on Peaco*ck)
BYE WEEK
9/21: vs. Portland State (Boise, ID - 7:45 p.m. on FS1)
9/28: vs. Washington State (Boise, ID - TBD on FOX/FS1/FS2)
10/5: vs. Utah State (Boise, ID - TDB on FOX/FS1/FS2)
10/12: @ Hawaii (Honolulu, HI - 9 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
BYE WEEK
10/25: @ UNLV (Las Vegas, NV - 8:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
11/1: vs. San Diego State (Boise, ID - 6 p.m. on FS1)
11/9: vs. Nevada (Boise, ID - TBD on FOX/FS1/FS2)
11/16: @ San Jose State (San Jose, CA - 5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
11/23: @ Wyoming (Laramie, WY - 5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
11/29: vs. Oregon State (Boise, ID - 10 a.m. on FOX)
Thoughts
Back-to-back years of facing national title contenders isn’t what the previous athletic department envisioned ten years ago. Alas, Boise State will have to walk into what should be a sold out Autzen Stadium under the lights and attempt to knock off a team with aspirations of hoisting a CFP trophy. Luckily, with the expansion of the playoff, the Broncos can afford a respectable loss to Oregon if they run the table the rest of the way. Starting in the eastern time zone against a fellow G5 opponent feels like a “more to lose than gain” situation. Top that off with not having the home opener until the third week of September against FCS Portland State and it may be tough to instill excitement after what may be a crushing loss to the Ducks.
The main trend I noticed with this schedule is how little alternating there is of home and road games. In fact, their schedule follows a sequence of two road games, three home games, two road games, two home games, two road games, capped off with a home finale. I don’t know if this will work out in Boise State’s favor, but I think a win streak will be amplified while any type of losing streak could be tougher to shake off.
Also, in the event you think your eyes are deceiving you, they are not.
Air Force is not on the schedule for the first time since 2012. With the Mountain West’ move to a divisionless format, the Broncos were given two permanent opponents that they will play every year, those being New Mexico and Utah State. This cycle, Boise State missed out on Colorado State, Fresno State and Air Force.
Best case scenario: Boise State has the pieces in house and with a softer conference schedule, they will have a chance to run the table outside of their date with Oregon. Oregon State lost head coach Jonathan Smith (Michigan State), star running back Damien Martinez (Miami), and projected starting QB Aidan Chiles (Michigan State) while Washington State was robbed of QB highlight reel Cam Ward (Miami). Neither one of those teams will run through their MW-heavy schedules. A road trip to the islands of Hawaii can be tricky for teams and a late-November date with Wyoming always seems to lead to antics. If the offense performs closer to its ceiling than its floor, then I can absolutely see the Broncos finding their way to an 11-1 season. Win the MWC title and before you know it - sitting at 12-1, Boise State would be in the driver’s seat to snatch the first ever guaranteed playoff bid for the “little guy”.
Worst case scenario: There is too much talent on this team for the season to be torpedoed if things go against them. However, could a surprise loss or two diminish expectations? While the conference slate isn’t a gauntlet, there are some games in finicky spots on the calendar that I don’t love. Playing in Laramie, going to Honolulu, the whole Oregon thing...combine some combination of those three and UNLV regrouping by the end of October and I can envision the Broncos wrapping up an 8-4 season. Considering the offensive firepower this team has, this would suggest that either the QB play wasn’t what we hoped it would be, someone of significance was sidelined, or the secondary didn’t make the jump needed to return to “The Standard”.
What’s probably going to happen: A bumpy start in Georgia that ends in a win for BSU will have folks feeling not-so-confident for Oregon - leaving the Broncos at 1-1 when the first bye week hits. With three straight home games, a mini-win streak could ensue before coming back down to reality with a loss to either Hawaii or UNLV. After that, Danielson and company regain their footing before a trip to Wyoming where I think they get tripped up. Overall, I see a slightly disappointing season of 9-3. Not bad by any means, but not the return to the national spotlight that many clamor for.
I am just going to put this out there. It has been 11 years since Boise State was on the mountain top, beating ranked teams and knocking off power conference foes. To me, I need to see the season that returns the Broncos to that echelon before I bestow it upon them in the preseason.
SMU, Houston, UCF, Cincinnati...they are all gone.
Now, your peers are Tulane, UTSA, Liberty and Memphis.
“This is OUR time! It’s our time down here!” - The Goonies circa 1985
This needs to be Boise State’s time...
